Big changes are coming to the Canadian political scene. With the election of Mark Carney as leader of the ruling party, he will formally replace Justin Trudeau, who resigned in January this year, to become the next Prime Minister of Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister-designate Carney
As a two-time central bank governor economist, Carney has rich experience in financial management, but has never served in elected office, which means his political path is full of challenges.
And in front of him, not only the domestic economy and social governance problems, but also a thorny diplomatic problem How to repair the relationship between China and Canada has dropped to the freezing point.
To discuss the future of China-Canada relations, it’s important to look at why they’ve deteriorated so dramatically over the past few years.
During the Trudeau administration, Canada’s policy toward China can be summarized in one sentence: It has followed the United States, even more aggressively than the United States.
The most noteworthy incident is undoubtedly the Meng Wanzhou incident, which was also an important turning point in China-Canada relations.2 In 2018, Canada unjustifiably detained Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou at the request of the United States, leading to a sharp turnaround in China-Canada relations. Although Meng was eventually released and returned to China in 2021, the damage caused to China-Canada relations by this incident has not been fully repaired to date.
In addition, the Canadian government has repeatedly cooperated with the U.S. in restricting Chinese companies from entering the Canadian market, especially in key areas such as 5G and mineral resources.
At the same time, Canada’s military activities in the Asia-Pacific region have been increasing, and it even sent warships to break into the Taiwan Strait, clearly aimed at China.
Obviously, the Trudeau government is largely responsible for the current state of Sino-Canadian relations. So, will Carney continue Trudeau’s old ways, or will he seek change?
Trudeau has almost followed in the footsteps of the United States.
At present, Carney’s attitude toward China may be significantly different from Trudeau’s. Although Carney and Trudeau belong to the same Liberal Party, but there is a clear difference between their governing philosophy and style. Especially in their attitudes toward the United States, Carney seems to have more backbone than Trudeau.
Trudeau’s policy towards the United States is almost obedient, while Carney does not seem to buy Trump’s account. During his campaign, he directly compared Trump to Voldemort, and promised that if Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Canada would fight back against American economic bullying.
That’s crucial, because Canada has been overly aggressive in its China policy in the past, in large part because it needed to curry favor with Washington. But if Carney is willing to be more independent in his policy toward the U.S., he may also reconsider the China-Canada relationship, or at least not follow the U.S. as closely as Trudeau did without any bottom line.
In addition, Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is a typical technocrat. His greatest strength lies in economic policy, not ideological confrontation.
Currently, the Canadian economy faces multiple challenges On the one hand, Canada is highly dependent on U.S. trade, but the Trump administration’s tariff policy imposed on Canada has led to a shock to the Canadian industrial chain. At the same time, Canada’s domestic inflation is high, the housing crisis is serious, and social discontent is high.
Under such economic pressure, if Carney really wants to stabilize the domestic situation, repairing the economic and trade relations between China and Canada is likely to be an option he has to consider.
China’s Foreign Ministry congratulates Canada’s new Prime Minister.
Carney will soon take office, China’s position is very subtle. A few days ago, the Chinese foreign ministry sent congratulations to Carney and said China will continue to develop bilateral relations with Canada on the basis of mutual respect and equality. The words “mutual respect” undoubtedly point out the key to the future of China-Canada relations.
What does that mean? Simply put, China doesn’t expect Canada’s policy towards China to make an immediate 180-degree turnaround, but at least it hopes that the other side will stop being confrontational and provocative, as Trudeau has been. For example, no more dictating on issues related to Taiwan and the South China Sea. China will not tolerate outside interference in its internal affairs, and this is an absolute red line.
From the current situation, Carney’s rise to power does bring the possibility of some changes in China-Canada relations, but it is not realistic to expect him to completely change course. After all, there is a deep-rooted bias against China in Canadian politics, and even if Carney himself is willing to make adjustments, domestic opposition and pressure from the United States cannot be ignored.
Overall, Carney is more pragmatic than Trudeau, but that doesn’t mean he will necessarily be friendly to China. For China, we can expect changes, but we also have to be prepared for a long struggle.
In the coming months, Carney’s first batch of diplomatic decisions will become an important wind vane for observing his attitude toward China, which deserves our continuous attention.
END
Image courtesy of the internet
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