Sergei Karaganov, a prominent Russian political scientist and former advisor to the Kremlin and head of the Department of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, believes that Western Europe may be led by midgets, but it is the Americans who are the shrewder operators.
When Washington resumed discussions on nuclear arms reduction, Sergey Karaganov dismissed the idea as a US strategic fraud aimed at weakening Russia while maintaining its military superiority. In an interview with the Moscow Times MK, Karaganov pointed out that nuclear deterrence remains Russia’s best guarantee against war, warned against repeating the mistakes of former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, and mocked French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan for a Western European nuclear umbrella. He also explains how Russia’s nuclear policy has forced the United States to adjust its strategy and quietly abandon its hard-line stance on Ukraine.
In the following interview, Karaganov explains why Russia must refuse to denuclearize, why nuclear weapons remain the ultimate equalizer, and what he sees as the urgent need for Western European leaders to wake up to reality.
MK If nuclear weapons are to be reduced, should all members of the nuclear club be involved, not just Russia and China, which the U.S. considers enemies?
Sergei Karaganov These proposals, which I’ve been hearing for decades from American strategists, are laughable and hostile. The United States, with its overwhelming potential in the scientific, technological, economic and military spheres, especially naval power and the superiority of space systems, is interested in reducing nuclear weapons. This is because these weapons nullify its huge investments in other military fields and cancel out the economic and technological advantages, and even the demographic dividend, of the United States. By drawing us into tripartite and even multilateral negotiations, the United States seeks to alienate our relations with friendly China.
But many Russians share the view that fewer nuclear weapons are better. This stems from the logic of American strategic thinking. Yes, we don’t need an excessive nuclear arsenal, but we must keep enough of them to completely dissuade any country from waging war or large-scale conflict against Russia and its allies.
Historically, we have overlooked the multiple functions of nuclear deterrence, which not only prevents nuclear aggression, but deters all wars. Nuclear deterrence eliminates all of an adversary’s advantages, demographic, economic, military, technological.
We have witnessed how the crisis in Ukraine could have turned into the fiasco we got if nuclear deterrence had not been used in the early stages of the conflict.
But thanks to the excellent work of a team of Russian experts, we activated our nuclear deterrent capability, modernized our nuclear policy and began to move up the so-called nuclear deterrence escalation ladder.
MK What is driving the changes in Russian nuclear doctrine?
SERGEI KARAGANOV At the beginning of last summer, the discussion on strengthening nuclear deterrence heated up, and then we revised our nuclear policy and upgraded our nuclear deterrence. This sent a clear signal to our adversaries that we were willing to use nuclear weapons. As the conflict continued to threaten the security of the United States and its allies, Washington was forced to back down and either suffer a humiliating defeat or launch a nuclear strike against allies and bases overseas.
At first, the U.S. claimed that Russia would never use nuclear weapons and tried to keep the war going until Russia ran out of steam. But after receiving signals from the Russians, they started talking about avoiding World War III and stopping escalation. This happened towards the end of the Biden administration, although the US ultimately still tried to pass the responsibility for the war to the next term. Neither we nor Trump fell into the trap, the latter just picked up the withdrawal baton.
It is unfortunate that we did not activate the nuclear deterrent mechanism earlier, or victory would have come sooner.
MK How has the situation changed during the Biden administration?
Sergei Karaganov The U.S. side realizes that it cannot win. Although Russia is recovering its economic and military-technical potential, we still lag badly in the demographic and economic spheres. Therefore, nuclear deterrence became the key to both preventing war and making it too expensive for the aggressor.
We can discuss limiting specific types of weapons, such as biological weapons, space weapons, long-range missiles and drones, which are increasingly threatening human security. The technological revolution has given rise to missile and drone technology that could even be utilized by terrorists.
But nuclear weapons must not be reduced. Divisive forces within Russia Influenced by U.S. ideology Supporters of total disarmament may be gullible to Trump’s rhetoric. But this is a trap, an American attempt to replicate Reagan’s fooling of Gorbachev, despite the fact that Gorbachev himself was a good man. I hope the U.S. will finally realize that its proposals will not be met with a positive response.
MK Do Europeans fear nuclear war?
Sergei Karaganov Since the period of relative peace in the early 1960s, the fear of nuclear war has gradually receded, despite the continuation of localized conflicts. The U.S. has long preached that nuclear war is not scary, and only recently has it changed its tune. In Western Europe, the nuclear parasite mentality, which lacks a deep fear of an existential crisis, is deeply rooted.
We must use nuclear deterrence to push Western Europe as far away as possible, or defeat it completely.
MK Is Macron’s proposal for a nuclear umbrella for the EU realistic?
Sergei Karaganov Not to insult the great nation of France, but the idea of a French nuclear umbrella covering other countries is hilarious. I have repeatedly emphasized and American experts have never refuted the fact that the United States would never use nuclear weapons against Russia in the event of a war in Europe. Even though American doctrine allows it, it’s a 100% bluff.
Macron’s proposal is a humiliating act of foolishness against France’s position. I’ve said repeatedly that unless the American president is insane or destroying America, he would never risk plunging Boston into nuclear war to defend Poznan. And now the French president wants to sacrifice Paris for Berlin? It’s time for the French deep state and people to get rid of the idiots in key positions.
But no one is attacking Western Europe. We are merely responding to NATO’s prolonged military and political aggression. The best way to ensure a safer Europe is to respect Russian interests and even become friends with them. However, the midgets at the top of Europe have so far failed to realize this. The time for change is now, and the time for defeat is now.
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