After the two sessions, the market once again choose the direction of the previous AI theme speculation began to cool down, benefited from the fundamentals of the improvement of expectations and policy catalyst industry has become the leading line. In the short term, the market main line has quietly switched.
March 5 11, non-ferrous metals 5 mechanical equipment 4 68 defense industry social services and other top gainers, are more than 3 percentage points real estate construction decoration agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries utilities petroleum and petrochemical performance bottom.
In terms of leading industries, non-ferrous metals benefited from the logic of product price increases machinery and equipment benefited from the equipment renewal exports exceeded expectations and the comprehensive catalyst of humanoid robots defense industry benefited from the steady growth of military spending geo-catalysts and industry orders bottomed out logic of the rebound of the social services benefited from the solid performance expectations and service consumption stimulus policy heating up
What is the commonality of the above sectors? The core commonality is that the market valuation logic is comprehensively shifted to focus on fundamentals to cash, with performance support of the certainty of the standard more and more favored, while the concept of speculation like a pavilion in the air is facing the pressure of capital outflow.
Looking ahead to the next few weeks, with the intensive disclosure of the annual report and 1 quarterly report, the impact of the logic of the fundamentals to realize will become more prominent. Accordingly, the next period of time, the probability of pure conceptual speculation subject will usher in a significant pullback, pre-stagnation and performance support plate is expected to usher in complementary opportunities.
The next question is, which plates have performance, which have no performance?
According to the Wanderer consensus expectation data, from the next two years net profit compound growth rate forecast, optical photonics real estate services marine equipment education software development tourism and scenic spots chemical pharmaceutical rubber semiconductor film and television theaters and other growth rate in the front, are more than 50, reflecting the market’s optimistic expectations of the business outlook of these industries non-metallic materials coke energy metals digital media glass fiberglass photovoltaic equipment real estate development and so on fell more than 10, indicating that the market for cyclical assets, the market’s optimistic expectations for the business outlook 10, indicating that the market still lacks confidence in the outlook for cyclical assets.
On balance, the current mainstream market expectations, generally believe that technology services consumer boom is higher, the future performance will have substantial growth of energy resources, real estate, banking, decoration and home furnishings and other sectors of the expectations are relatively pessimistic. Reflected in the market style, that is, science and technology is rising, cycle lagging. As for the consumer sector, it is the consumer services better performance.
Back to the current market, the technology sector is not a castle in the air, optical photonics software development semiconductors IT services communications equipment and other core track have solid performance support. This indicates that in the performance disclosure period of the big test is approaching, science and technology will not be systematic ebb and flow of the main line, but will show structural rotation, the performance of the color of significant segments are expected to continue to lead the market trend.
The inspiration for investment is that, in the face of performance pressure test, investors do not need to sell technology positions, but should focus on the high boom track to implement the accurate adjustment of positions At the same time, the service consumption continues to grow strongly, part of the consumption of goods, such as dairy products are ushering in the cycle of inflection point, superimposed on the catalyst of the consumer policy, the consumer plate is expected to cash in on the performance of the period to show the elasticity of the excess returns.
Medium-term dimension observation, the underlying logic of this round of science and technology cattle is still firm, its position as the main line of annual certainty has not been shaken. With the closing of the April performance disclosure window, the suppression of factors gradually eliminated, technology style is expected to regain control of the market discourse. The current technical adjustment of the plate is just a window of opportunity to layout a new round of market. Of course, the adjustment to buy, but also to avoid pure speculation subject.
In addition, many people recognize that this year’s market has a high degree of similarity with 2013, the structural market in 2013, behind the clear fundamental logic.
In the replica 2013! In the A-share strategy to make a lot of money to come in an article, we reviewed the 2013 A-share market, secondary industry level, film and television theaters medical services medical devices digital media advertising and marketing software development games, etc. rose more than 69, in hindsight, are also supported by the performance.
2012 2014 two years, the above seven industries, the average profit growth rate of 104, the lowest 43, the highest 169, of which, four industries growth rate of more than 100. On the flip side, coal mining liquor engineering machinery and metallurgical steel raw materials, etc. fell more than 30, the annual performance of the bottom two years of profits fell more than 25. In hindsight, the bad market is nothing more than an early prediction of poor performance.
Plate market is also subject to the broader market constraints. If the market is weak, the structural market is also difficult to have a good performance. The good thing is that, based on three factors, the broader market does not have the risk of a major adjustment in the near future.
First, the economic fundamentals marginal improvement. In terms of the old kinetic energy, the real estate market showed a structural rebound, and in January 2025, commodity residential prices in first-tier cities rose, and new home prices in second-tier cities rebounded for the first time since June 2023, and the visibility of the full-year stabilization of the decline rose. At the same time, new kinetic energy is accelerating the formation of high-tech manufacturing value added growth of 8 9 in 2024, the output of new energy vehicles exceeded 10 million, strategic emerging industries invention patents amounted to 1,349,000, science and technology empowerment has become the core driving force of economic growth, 2025, the new quality of productivity areas are expected to maintain rapid growth.
At the same time, stabilizing growth policies continue to force, this year’s fiscal policy deficit rate increased to 4 scale 5 66 trillion yuan, the monetary policy shifted to moderate easing, policy combinations for the market injected cardiotonic.
Second, the liquidity environment continues to be favorable. Risk capital favors certainty, the current global uncertainty intensified, the Chinese market is expected to enjoy certainty premium Overlay DeepSeek triggered by China’s technology asset revaluation logic, foreign capital continued to flow into China’s assets is the probability of events. Domestic environment, the domestic bond market yields into the 1 era, funds from the bond market deposits to the stock market trend is clear, superimposed on the medium and long term funds to accelerate into the market, the A-share market liquidity is expected to continue to improve.
Thirdly, risk appetite is rising across the board.2025 government work report for the first time will stabilize the stock market into the overall requirements, proposed to increase the medium- and long-term capital into the market, effectively bottoming out uncertainty Technology narrative continues to ferment, and the orderly opening of the space of imagination. In this context, the market risk appetite presents a systematic upward trend, the stock index pivot is expected to move upward in steps, the capital market resilience features more and more prominent.
Therefore, the short-term market does not have a significant risk of adjustment, investors can bottom-up, combined with the logic of the fundamentals and growth space, actively grasp the structure of the bull market.
Note The market is risky, investment needs to be cautious. In any case, the information contained in this subscription number or the opinions expressed are only for the exchange of views and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. Unless otherwise noted, the research data in this article is supported by Flush iFinD.
This article was originally published by public number Xingtu Financial Research Institute, written by Xue Hongyan, vice president of Xingtu Financial Research Institute.
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Editor Hu Wei
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