Both Russia and Ukraine want to continue, but Russia has achieved sustainability, while Ukraine is totally dependent on foreign countries. So, in the end, Ukraine’s will was infinitely minimized, while Russia’s was infinitely amplified. Even the U.S. doesn’t have enough say to follow Russia’s will.
Good morning, good noon, good evening, my friend, and today we’ll talk more about Russia and Ukraine.
This week’s Russia-Ukraine situation is really bloody, in addition to making you and me brain spin, the logic of the game behind this actually did not change.
First of all, Europe
Because Europe is considered the biggest victim of this farce.
Europe heard bad news and did something this week. The bad news is that Trump made a direct killing move to cut off supplies to Ukraine, and then Zelensky immediately conceded.
Ukraine publicly said it could last 6 months without US support and US think tanks believe the Ukrainian army used up all its air defenses in 1 month. Judging by the speed with which Zelensky conceded, the Ukrainian army’s current ammunition stockpile may be even worse than the worst estimates of American think tanks.
The thing to do is to spend a week in meetings and quarrels.
One, how to help Ukraine, and two, how to protect Europe independently.
As for the result, nothing came out of the fight, except that two principles were confirmed without the need for a meeting, Ukraine’s help and Europe’s defense and independence.
European politicians surely know that from 22 years to now, all the suffering of Europe is due to support for Ukraine, but immediately get rid of Ukraine can not make Europe’s problems cured.
The reason for continuing to support Ukraine is that a sharp U-turn would be tantamount to a wholesale rejection of European politics from the end of the Cold War to the present day. A wholesale rejection is tantamount to cutting off the electorate from its base, which is tantamount to political suicide in an era when most politicians rely on their base votes to govern.
So, Europe is de facto locked in a quagmire by Ukraine, and even if it realizes that something is wrong, it can’t break free, because European politicians lack the courage to break their backs, and they lack the external pressure to break their backs.
Then this time to see, aid to Ukraine can not be negotiated, the European self-help talks can not be results, in fact, completely understandable. Europe knows from the beginning of the aid and defense is a false proposition, the purpose of cooperation is to not make, then you can talk about something instead of a ghost.
Of course, aid to Ukraine can not be negotiated is actually the problem of money. From the beginning of the war in 22 years to the end of January 25 years, the United States provided Ukraine with about 70 billion U.S. dollars in aid, this is the U.S. Department of State’s official data, while the European Union provided Ukraine with a large amount of 14.5 billion euros in aid.
Now the U.S. directly cut off the supply of Ukraine, the 70 billion dollar shortfall fell on the Europeans, with the current economic growth rate of less than 1 in Europe, I seriously doubt that Europe can afford to pay this money.
At this time some friends will ask, this is not a 800 billion European military program and a French nuclear umbrella program? These two count the results, right?
Strictly speaking, this 800 billion is only a large framework, this framework is equivalent to what I said I have to earn a small goal in 25 years. According to Europe’s current military strength, it would take more than 800 billion to compete with the Russian military. Of course, the Russian military doesn’t have the capacity to fight Europe.
However, this 800 billion to really put down for the European economy is certainly beneficial, just as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict briefly brought to live the Russian economy, 800 billion European investment probability can stimulate to the European economy.
As for this 800 billion how to spend? Anyway, 25 years of Europe is not clear. We can only be sure now that from 25 years, Europe will increase military spending as a percentage of GDP.
Plus France provides a nuclear umbrella. To be able to put forward this point of view really have to give the French politicians to add chicken legs, by France to provide nuclear umbrella is the same as Europe’s own to sew their own wounds, the subtext here is that Europe acquiesced to the United States will not even give the most basic nuclear deterrent.
This means that Europe itself also recognizes that NATO’s right of collective self-defense is a piece of paper, and Europe no longer has any illusions about it.
However, the provision of a nuclear umbrella by France is an absolute liability for France, because in the European Union, there are not only countries like Germany that do things in their heads, but also countries like Poland and the three Baltic States that don’t do things in their heads, and then, in the worst case scenario, France will be kidnapped by radical countries, and even the world will be kidnapped.
There are views questioning whether the number of French nuclear warheads is enough to protect Europe. In fact, France’s nuclear deterrence relies entirely on nuclear submarines , so the French Navy has never given up its research and attempts on state-of-the-art nuclear submarines. It is estimated that when the French nuclear umbrella is implemented, it will also be in the form of nuclear submarines .
Here is a plug, there is a European country this week very out of the jump, that is Hungary. First, the gas pipeline was blown up, then it rejected the EU’s aid program, and finally, this weekend, it reached a tariff waiver agreement with the United States.
Now there’s even a rumor that Trump wants to move U.S. troops in Germany to Hungary. Here the odds are that Hungary will not agree.
There’s a joke that it’s the rule of law that saves you. Same thing with Hungary, it was the political state of affairs and rules in Europe that saved Hungary . Europe has never been united, so rules are needed to maintain the appearance of unity and decency in the EU.
But that also makes centrists or realists like Hungary an outlier within the EU, another example is Serbia. So the EU is now looking for ways to bypass Hungary , or silence Hungary .
Of course it doesn’t matter to Hungary whether Western Europe can bypass Hungary and continue to delude itself or not, because Hungary has already achieved its political aims this week through its own maneuvering.
Let’s move on from Europe to Russia and Ukraine.
Why put Russia and Ukraine together, because Russia and Ukraine obviously do not want a truce, and now only the Trump administration in the United States wants a truce.
This week Zelensky first put the hard words Russia and Ukraine will fight for a long time. Trump immediately changed his mind about signing the contract after he cut off his food, and on Friday said he was willing to talk to Russia about peace. During this time it also came out that Zelensky again said contradictory things on social media, saying that Ukraine will resist to the end.
Zelensky would change his mind and change his mind so many times solely because Trump came down hard to cut off aid. But it was clear from Zelensky’s performance that he didn’t want a truce.
In the next week, Zelensky and Trump will meet in Saudi Arabia, it is certain that there will be something wrong, exactly what we will see.
And Putin is still presumably full of doubts this week. First Trump calls for a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine, then he threatens Russia with heavier sanctions if they don’t. But this week Russia did release goodwill, saying that Ukraine can talk as long as it accepts Russia’s ultimate goal of peace talks .
But if you look at that statement, you’ll see that what the Russians are saying is what they’re not saying, that Russia’s ultimate goal for a cease-fire is for Ukraine to be neutral and for Russia to have a strategic buffer. Zelensky can’t accept this, isn’t this a surrender before defeat?
At the same time, the Russian army’s current superiority on the battlefield cannot be turned into a bargaining chip on the negotiating table , so Putin is still inclined to continue to fight.
Friends can look up my previous articles on Russia and Ukraine, I have always judged that Russia is to continue to fight. Facts also proved my judgment, this weekend the Russian army in the Kursk region launched a counter-offensive, successfully let the Ukrainian army in Kursk can not stand.
Now, there’s a theory that the Russians have cut off the main supply lines of the Ukrainian army, and there’s also a theory that the Russians have managed to retake a number of positions from the Ukrainian army. Either way, Kursk has gone from being a battlefield achievement to a quagmire that the Ukrainians must get out of.
Here, you can say that the Russians felt that the time had come and there was no need to hold the Ukrainian forces at Kursk, or you can say that the Russians took advantage of the fact that Zelensky was going to Saudi Arabia to talk to Trump, and used the battle results to make it more difficult for Zelensky to negotiate .
Either way, it was a mistake for the Ukrainians to attack Kursk, and an even bigger mistake to hold on to it. For more information on why, you can read my previous article on the Russia-Ukraine review.
As we can see, now both Russia and Ukraine want to continue, but Russia achieved sustainability, while Ukraine is completely dependent on foreign countries. So, in the end, Ukraine’s will is minimized and Russia’s is maximized.
So it’s Russia’s turn to decide whether or not there will be a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine and when it will happen.
Lastly, let’s talk about Trump.
Trump in this week can be said to be cloudy, first cut off the Ukrainian military aid, then the good words of Russia and Ukraine ceasefire, and over the weekend is to threaten Russia with economic sanctions without a ceasefire.
With such urgency, I’m beginning to wonder, how big does the U.S. debt problem have to be? So that the Trump administration can even do not even face to pull out of Ukraine.
U.S. debt has more crisis time will tell us, but we can now judge, Russia and Ukraine ceasefire or not the U.S. voice is not big, even if the United States also have to follow the wishes of Russia to go.
I have been seriously studying the Russian-Ukrainian conflict since 23 years, during which I have witnessed countless blood and tears. I study the war not because I like the war, really study into the war people will not like the war, the purpose of studying the war is for peace, because it is the war to tell us the preciousness and beauty of peace.
Russia and Ukraine will also be what moths, I accompany you to see together.
I’ll see you in the next article.
Serious but out-of-the-box analysis of current affairs A different perspective on current events Welcome to your attention!
Serious but out-of-the-box analysis of current affairs, a different perspective on current events.
Serious but offbeat analysis of current affairs
A Different Perspective on Current Events
Welcome to your attention
Leave a Reply