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In recent times, China’s technology companies have, undoubtedly, become the brightest stars in the global market. The Hong Kong stock market, with its high proportion of technology stocks, has also become the world’s brightest performing asset class this year. Hang Seng Technology Index rose nearly 50, A shares to chip as the representative of the technology is not far behind.
The core of the Hang Seng Technology is Alibaba, you can see the assistant circle of friends almost from the lowest point to grasp, and then from the release of DEEPSEEK, I gave the valuation of Chinese and American technology companies in both directions to run to the core of the big logic, the winning rate has returned to 100 .
In China’s technology companies after three years of policy valleys After a difficult bottom, DEEPSEEK prompted the world to re-recognize cautiously the technology level of China’s technology companies, breaking the valuation bias of foreign investors.
Take the frontier field of artificial intelligence. At the software level, there was still a two-year technology gap between us and the US at the beginning of last year. Now, however, we have basically leveled the gap, and even better in cost control.
And lower R & D operating costs means that we can be more affordable price of technology to the market, which is undoubtedly the American counterparts of a kind of dimensional blow.
Therefore, the valuation of Chinese and U.S. technology companies will soon run to the core logic as a guide, I have analyzed Alibaba, the core weighting of the Hang Seng Technology, and deduced that the reasonable valuation of Alibaba should be in the range of 170 Hong Kong dollars, so that it can make it and the U.S. top technology companies in the valuation of the level of basically maintained in the same level line.
Of course, this is a constant valuation of U.S. stocks.
But now US tech stocks, the biggest bubble in history, are close to collapsing. For example, Tesla, the pioneer in the field of electric cars, plunged 50, and I predicted that it would erase all the gains since Trump’s election has been verified Artificial intelligence leader Nvidia, the stock price has also sunk about 30. The Nasdaq is down 13 from its highs, almost the worst performance in the world so far this year.
On the contrary, the domestic A-share market, the valuation of some technology stocks is bizarrely soaring, and even far more than the United States counterparts. This constrains the magnitude of the further rebound of China’s technology stock companies in the future. After all, too high valuation deviated from the fundamentals support, once the market sentiment reversal, the big A technology stocks are likely to collapse hand in hand with the U.S. technology stocks.
In fact, looking back on this round of artificial intelligence boom, A shares of the relevant concepts not only have not been absent, but also experienced two rounds of crazy speculation, excessive speculative atmosphere, making the stock price and the intrinsic value of the deviation more and more significant, of course, this is not the focus of my attention.
In the future, my analysis of technology stocks will remain centered on Hang Seng Technology. My weekend article has pointed out that technology stocks speculation in the short and medium term have been close to madness, but in the long term, the index still has the space to repair.
Here, I provide you with a simple indicator, that is, Hang Seng Technology is currently the average price-earnings ratio at 25 times, while the average price-earnings ratio of the NASDAQ 100 at 35 times. In the future, the average valuation of the two will continue to run in both directions, but this is a dynamic process of this and that, and in the short term there may even be a widening of the gap is also possible.
And when the valuation of the two close, count me this two-way run to the forecast validation, to that time, what the follow-up views, I will update.
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