A few days ago, the Philippine defense chief suddenly threw dirty water on China again, saying that China had set up an air defense zone over the South China Sea in an attempt to restrict the freedom of flight of the Philippines and its allies .
The reason for the Philippine side to make such a remark is not that they have any basis for it, but it is entirely the result of their own inference.
Chinese helicopters pushed right up against Philippine military aircraft
Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro specifically cited a real-life case from not too long ago. Just last month, Teodoro said, a Chinese naval helicopter flew within 10 feet of a Philippine Roland propeller aircraft, when the Philippine pilot warned the Chinese over the radio that the Chinese were flying too close and that this was very dangerous, but the Chinese were undeterred. A tense 30-minute standoff ensued, and the Philippine side eventually withdrew in defeat.
The Philippine side was very upset that the Chinese naval helicopters were so bold in their actions and skills that they dared to fly so close to the foreign military aircraft on a cloudy day, which made the Philippine pilots, who were not skilled enough, completely overwhelmed.
The Philippine side also said that apart from doing this to Philippine military aircraft, the Chinese side is also capable of doing a dozen or three directly over the South China Sea. Last month, China drove off an Australian military plane in Xisha Islands airspace, while the U.S. military has also reported that it has been driven off by China in the South China Sea.
Based on this, Teodoro said China’s actions in the South China Sea have become the biggest threat to the Philippines’ national security and should also be considered a global threat.
Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro
But from the perspective of objective facts, the Philippine side’s remarks are totally unjustified.
First of all, the waters and islands referred to by the Philippine side are originally the inherent territory of China, and the so-called freedom of flight of the Philippines is essentially an attempt to encroach on the sovereignty of the Chinese side, so the Chinese side has the justification and the right to drive them away.
Secondly, the tense situation in the South China Sea is simply the result of speculation by the Philippine side in conjunction with external forces. The Philippine Defence Minister has also mentioned that when the Philippine turboprop aircraft appeared in our airspace over Huangyan Island, there were also a number of invited foreign media on board, which captured a lot of footage of the so-called Chinese military aircraft approaching the Philippine military aircraft, with a view to using this as a means of speculation in the international community and creating an image of bullying on the part of the Chinese side.
The Chinese side has not taken the Philippine side’s shouting seriously, and has not read it back at all. On the other hand, the exasperated Philippine side has indicated that it will join hands with its allies to formulate contingency measures against China.
As for who this ally is, the Philippine side also immediately announced the answer.
A few days ago, the Office of the President of the Philippines said that Philippine President Marcos Jr. conveyed to Trump the willingness to hold a meeting, but also received a positive response from Trump, although the time is not yet determined, but the two sides will meet at the appropriate time.
For Marcos Jr, there is no way out for him in the diplomatic arena at the moment, except to remain attached to the United States.
The United States, on the other hand, under Trump, may not be willing to continue the Biden administration’s policy of unconditionally supporting the Philippines in the South China Sea.
The first is that there is an essential difference in the diplomatic philosophy of the two administrations. During the Biden administration, the tendency is to strengthen the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty Joint military exercises and other gratuitous demonstrations of deterrence. Trump’s foreign policy, on the other hand, is usually centered on the exchange of short-term benefits, emphasizing the need for allies to pay the bill for security protection. So if the Philippines wants U.S. support, it may have to share more of its defense spending with South Korea. And Marcos Jr, who is used to asking for food with his hand out, may not be able to accept such an offer.
Secondly, the U.S. government’s game strategy toward China has changed. Biden is the so-called coalition of values through the rendering of the Chinese threat, the integration of the Indo-Pacific allies to form an encirclement of China, the South China Sea issue has been shaped as a symbolic battleground for the maintenance of the rules-based international order, and support for the Philippines has become a key grabber.
But Trump is more inclined to unilateral transactions, preferring to directly exchange interests with China, when the South China Sea dispute will become a negotiable bargaining chip, rather than a principle that must be adhered to. If China makes concessions in other areas, the Trump administration is expected to sacrifice the interests of the Philippines.
Finally, the instrumental value of the Philippines has also declined.
Compared to allies such as Japan and South Korea, which have cutting-edge industries and technological synergies, the Philippines’ economic volume and military contribution are low, making it difficult for it to meet Trump’s expectations for cost-effective allies.
Coupled with the general unwillingness of ASEAN countries to take a clear stand between China and the U.S., Trump’s strong pressure on the Philippines to provoke China in the South China Sea could lead to a backlash within ASEAN, instead undermining the U.S.’s overall influence in Southeast Asia. This risk could prompt the Trump administration to adopt a more cautious stance.
In short, the strength of the Trump administration’s support for the Philippines depends fundamentally on its calculation of the cost-benefit ratio. Trump is more likely to view the South China Sea as a tradable geo-commodity than Biden’s ideologization of the issue into the framework of long-term competition with China. This utilitarian approach to diplomacy means that if the Philippines fails to prove that it can deliver sufficient returns, it will likely be downgraded from a strategic pivot to a bargaining chip, or even a casualty of the great power game.
References and Sources
CCTV News Illegal intrusion into our sea and air! A few details, to see through the Philippines shoddy tactics
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