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Earlier in the broadcast, I have been emphasizing a point to all of you that the bailout in 2025 does not lie in the re-opening of the purchase and lending restrictions.
Regardless of whether it is Shanghai again to liberalize the purchase restrictions, or Beijing Shenzhen again to liberalize the purchase restrictions and loan restrictions, these administrative rescue policy can only treat the symptoms but not the root cause.
Shenzhen further liberalization of purchase restrictions, can only save Shenzhen. Beijing to further liberalize the purchase restrictions, can only save Beijing. Shanghai to further liberalize the purchase restrictions, can only save Shanghai.
The liberalization of the strong first-tier cities can only save the city alone, for the rest of the country’s rescue will not help.
Therefore, 2025 the signal of the property market national rescue, not at all in the administrative policy liberalization, or strong stimulus stimulus policy. But lies in a seemingly silent but important and unusual action!
Fiscal storage in various provinces and cities.
The current solution to the property market focuses on going to inventory, and solve the problem of going to inventory of effective measures only one, through the financial market excess house and land storage over. Through the elimination of inventory to achieve a balance between supply and demand.
As long as this signal appears, indicating that the right medicine to save the market has begun to eat up.
Just at the end of February, the scale of financial storage signal has appeared, the national team began to spend a lot of effort to inventory.
At the end of February, Guangdong Province issued a notice on matters related to the issuance of special bonds. The notice said that the plan is to February 28 for special bonds eight Nine issues for competitive bidding.
What is in the spotlight is the purpose of this special bond.
Guangdong Province issued two special bonds this time. Eight plans to issue a total of 11.404 billion yuan, nine plans to issue a total of about 19.315 billion yuan, the two special bonds totaling about 30.7 billion yuan, all for the recovery of idle stock of land projects in Guangdong Province.
The scope of the repossessions covered by this 30.7 billion have all been announced.
The special bond eight phase, the collection of a total of 17 projects, the total investment amount of the project is about 20.9 billion yuan, mainly used for the land reserve in Guangzhou and Huizhou City.
Dedicated debt nine, raising 69 projects, a total investment of 263.81 billion, mainly for Zhuhai Shantou, Foshan, Shaoguan, Heyuan, Meizhou, Shanwei and other 17 cities of land reserves.
Guangdong Province is the first province in the country to land special bond funds to recover idle stock of land. This means that the bullet bank of financial storage is open, and more provinces and cities will follow to join the process of special bond funds to collect stockpile land and commercial properties.
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Guangzhou’s move to eat crabs is a big step forward in the fiscal collection of stockpile land and commercial housing.
Because since last year’s proposal of the real estate industry since the financial storage, although the General Assembly small meeting frequently mentioned, but the actual landing progress is relatively slow.
May 17 last year, with the epic rescue policy synchronization, the pace of fiscal storage to inventory kicked off. The central mom specifically set up a 300 billion yuan guaranteed housing refinancing, support local state-owned enterprises with a reasonable price acquisition has been completed unsold commercial housing used for sale and rent-allocation type of housing.
By September, the central mom to increase the dose, will be the funds to support the comparison from 60 raised to 100, the scale of funds from 300 billion upgraded to 500 billion.
In October, the financial dad and state, the local can arrange special bonds to acquire the stock of commercial housing used as guaranteed housing.
In November, the Ministry of Natural Resources and issued a circular, the use of local special bond funds to increase the collection of storage capacity idle land.
After a variety of meetings, the General Assembly will often mention the financial storage of real estate. But in the actual full landing because of the existence of the card point problem, the actual storage landing is not as fast as imagined.
Financial storage is to spend money, spend money to consider the value of the money spent.
The most core of the storage process is the price of the storage of a card point.
Whether it is the collection of storage capacity of commercial housing, or idle stock of land, the determination of the price of storage is the core.
The price is determined to be high, the pressure of the storage party is relatively large. After all, each local and city itself has debt pressure, but also from the teeth of the money for financial storage, has been very difficult.
The price of the storage is low. Real estate enterprises are reluctant. If the price of the land in storage is not enough to cover the financing that has been carried out, the willingness of real estate enterprises to sell is not strong. Especially the stock of idle land storage requirements without any pledge and mortgage, if there is a mortgage, but also need to real estate enterprises to release their own mortgage. Some real estate enterprises are already poor, which still have extra money to unencumber the land.
So in the main contradiction in the price of storage, each local and urban financial storage work progress is not too fast. To put it bluntly, the main problem of storage is still the problem of money.
Last year, the storage of funds from the central mom’s loan, the central mom’s loan size is limited. And this year, the actual landing of the special debt, so that the pool of funds for storage has expanded a lot.
Guangdong Province’s special debt funds storage is still the first step, special debt storage after the mouth is open, according to Huatai Securities three years to complete the storage of the rhythm of measurement, each year, the storage of funds in the 580,800,000,000,000 yuan.
This figure is a basis for observation. Rescue indicators do not have to look at the administrative policy to liberalize, you only need to look at the size of the financial storage every month, you can probably assess the progress of the rescue.
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I put the 2025 rescue target has told you, will not observe it all depends on their own. Realistically speaking, the real estate industry is still in the early stages of de-stocking.
According to Kerrera, the number of commercial residential units for sale has been increasing steadily since 2022. As of year-end 2024, there are still 753.27 million commercial residential units for sale , and the national inventory area has not yet found a declining inflection point.
Of course, there are big differences in inventory between different cities. Such as Shenzhen, such as cities, inventory depreciation cycle is relatively small. Most of the first and second-tier cities, although the inventory needs a certain cycle, but with the purchasing power of the market, in time, still be able to digest the inventory to a reasonable level.
The most difficult to de-inventory is the third and fourth tier cities. Especially the net population outflow of three or four tier cities, these cities to inventory will need to financial storage of the force.
The commercial residential financial storage compared to land storage, more difficult to implement. Local state-owned enterprises to collect storage capacity of commercial housing is also to consider the balance of costs and benefits.
At present, many cities have a relatively low rent to sale ratio, local state-owned enterprises to collect storage of commercial housing moves often do not count over the account.
Now feasible is the stock of land storage. Land storage over the land can be operated through the land, adjust the planning and other ways to increase land revenue.
So the 2025 financial storage of the main event, focusing on the inventory of idle land storage.
Inventory of idle land in the form of storage, not only in the use of special debt funds. At the moment there is also a land exchange storage method, this way because it does not require the expenditure of funds, but rapid progress.
In November 2024, Yuexiu and the Guangzhou Land Development Center signed a storage agreement for 2 pieces of land in Daganwei, Guangzhou, which is expected to receive 1,529 million in compensation, and these two pieces of land will be adjusted from commercial land to residential land, which will be re-supplied for sale at a later stage.
In December 2024, Vanke re-acquired three parcels of land at Panyu South Station in Guangzhou, which were originally for commercial use, and in 2023, Vanke received a monetary rebate through land surrender. The latter parcels were reorganized as residential land and Vanke once again won the auction. Reactivation of inefficient land was realized.
In 2025, there will be more cases of idle land storage out, and the scale of idle land storage and stock of commercial housing will come up a little bit.
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