It’s been a really tough couple of years.
Can the Big A follow up? Will we be able to boost the economy and usher in a recovery as we wish? Will we be better off in terms of employment and treatment?
The next few years are indeed critical. That is why many people have compared us with Japan in the past two years to judge our subsequent trend.
Whenever the Japanese economy is mentioned, one of the most common phrases is The Lost Thirty Years The bursting of the economic bubble in Japan which started in the 1990s resulted in a prolonged economic depression. There are quite a number of people who think that we are following this old path of Japan.
When I was a child, when people mentioned Japan, they had mixed feelings They disliked the country, but they had to admit that they were very economically advanced. Especially in the 1980s, the Japanese were so rich that they could buy the Empire State Building in the United States and Van Gogh’s sunflowers. If you sold Tokyo, you could buy the whole US! The main market for LV and Gucci is Japan, where a large number of Japanese travel abroad to study, and ordinary people play golf a few times a month.
Our economic growth rate after the millennium was as high as 10 , quite amazing. I don’t know that Japan has experienced it earlier than we did, and it lasted longer than we did, and it has more strength than we did. Japan is now criticized for its consortium system, life-long employment system, close political and business relations, and so on, in those days it was a secret weapon, the winning formula, even many European and American countries are learning.
But in the 1990s, everything came to an abrupt end.
In the 30 years it lost, its GDP stagnated almost every year, and it fell to the bottom of the G7.
At the beginning, the Japanese were lucky, thinking that after a few years it would get better. What they didn’t realize is that this economic stagnation has been huge and long. What started out as a lost decade turned into two decades, and finally into three.
The stock market plummeted by more than 50 percent, and housing prices were nearly decimated. Businesses are closing down, and employees are either unemployed or haven’t gotten a raise in thirty years. Countless families went bankrupt and committed suicide. This is a huge blood bath of wealth.
You must get rid of all your investments before 1990! Don’t expect to make money from your investments anymore, just run a business! Keigo Higashino’s “The Problem Solvers”, excerpt.
You must get rid of all your investments by 1990! Don’t expect to make money from your investments. Run a business!
Keigo Higashino’s “The Problem Solvers” Excerpt
People are afraid to consume, businesses are afraid to invest, and no one is willing to take out a loan even when the interest rate drops to zero.
After 30 years, Japan’s housing prices still have not recovered
Isn’t it a bit similar to our current situation? This is also why so many people have been studying Japan over the past few years and discussing our subsequent trend.
And looking back at the causes of this economic depression in Japan, it’s actually somewhat similar to what we’re going through right now, the consortium system led to a lack of business vitality, the decline in the labor force due to the aging of the population, the lack of domestic demand, the economy shied away from the real world, and the real estate bubble was triggered by the Plaza Accord, and then the bubble finally burst.
It can be seen that for us, the significance of Japan is far greater than that of Europe and the United States.
If we go deeper, we will find that the three East Asian countries, China, Japan and South Korea, share a high degree of similarity in their social and cultural structures. Once there is a peaceful and stable environment, all of them will be able to develop rapidly.
But when they reach a certain level, they will fall into similar predicaments, such as plummeting fertility rates, monstrous expansion of real estate, and a high degree of social involution.
Even extending to the whole of Southeast Asia, there is a certain commonality in that they have all been influenced by Confucianism, valuing order, promoting collectivism, placing a high value on education, and believing in secularized utilitarianism.
That’s why some people say that Japan’s past is China’s future. This may not be true because history does not repeat itself 100%, but it does have certain commonalities and patterns, and the future can be chosen as long as the desirable lessons are distilled.
If we are really in the same predicament as Japan, our situation may be even worse Japan is getting rich before it gets old, and we are declining before we get rich.
We also have to face an external environment which is even more vicious and difficult than that of Japan back then
Of course, we also have advantages both politically and economically we’re more autonomous unlike Japan which is highly subordinate to the US the country has more powerful regulatory tools both in terms of population base and environmental resources we have more potential for economic development and we also have Japan as a model to learn from.
Not only can the state and society learn from Japan’s past and avoid repeating it, but there are even more specific lessons we can learn as individuals.
If we enter a period of economic contraction, will real estate really go down and down and down?
What if wages don’t rise for 20 to 30 years and we can’t even find a job?
What kind of death-defying behavior will make our wealth go up in smoke?
What are the right things to do to safely navigate through the cycle and even swim against the current?
As individuals, we have no control over the future momentum, but we can choose to respond positively. Advice will not come from the future time and space, but only from learning from the past.
Reading about Japan is extremely relevant to us . Reading history makes people wise, that’s what I mean.
It is highly recommended to read the review by Chinese-American economist Koo Chiu-ming. He reviews in detail why Japan lost thirty years, what happened in those thirty years, and what are the lessons learned from the initiatives that did the right thing.
More importantly, in the last chapter of the review, the author also summarizes and predicts our economy and gives concrete suggestions. The recommendations he made eight years ago have now been verified!
Scan the code to get your free copy of the review
His famous Balance Sheet Contraction Theory is an important guide for our future survival! Balance your family’s balance sheet in order to have a smooth ride in the next ten or twenty years!
Japan is a mirror for us, and the review has wiped this mirror and given us a clear picture. How can we learn from Japan’s experience?
It provides a very good perspective. To a certain extent, we can regard the review as a book of the future.
The only drawback is that the book is too specialized and obscure, with a lot of jargon that is not easy for ordinary people to read and absorb. But the information is very valuable. That’s why I’ve found an old friend, Mr. Sun Mingzhan, to hold an online communication and sharing session, and to communicate with you through live broadcasting.
I have recommended Mr. Sun to readers many times before, he is a master tutor in the Department of Statistics, Department of Mathematics, Sun Yat-sen University, with a senior professional background. He is the most suitable person to interpret this book.
Join us on Tuesday, March 11th at 19:00 for an evening of discussion.
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Knowing the past is the only way to avoid risks. Understanding risk is the only way to avoid risk, and understanding the past is the only way to have a future. No matter what kind of confusion or anxiety you have about the future, you will gain from listening to this analysis.
This article contains promotion, follow-up consulting services and related responsibilities by Sun Myung Chin Insurance.
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