Introduction As the title .
I After the bond market crash on March 7, the market was very panicky. For example, only on Friday, March 7, the day, 2-year 10-year and 30-year Chinese government bond yields rose sharply 6BP 5BP and 4BP to 1,507 1,8002 and 1,975, respectively, and 10-year bond yields 1,8 high, respectively, for the highest since October 24, 2024 December 12 and December 26, respectively, compared with the historical lows have risen 50BP 20BP and 10BP. 20BP and 10BP, respectively.
Currently, the market is generally expected to 10-year Treasury yields of the current round of the top is located roughly in the range of 1 8 1 9 Deepseek Answers , March 7 bond market plunge means that the above range has arrived.
II However, in the current situation where the market is more panicked, I believe that we can not panic for the time being, the market will not move overnight. Especially in conjunction with two recent events, bond bulls should be able to rest assured in the short term
A March 9, 2025 Friday , the National Bureau of Statistics released price data show that even taking into account seasonal factors such as the Chinese New Year, the current deflationary pressure is still very large, the task of anti-deflation is still more difficult, so inflation in the short term not only will not be particularly large short-term disturbances in the bond market, but will have some support.
Second, also on March 9, 2025, the former official of the bank of mankind Guan Tao’s interview released some information on the bond market to form support, namely, in March the central bank to cut interest rates or very hopeful as well as the ratio of the bank’s net interest margin and non-performing loan ratio to turn positive again may open the window of the bank of mankind’s interest rate policy operations. This means that, in the short term, the Bank of China again cut rates is expected Of course, I believe that the possibility of lowering the interest rates of structural policy instruments is higher Policy rate cuts are completely unnecessary .
Third, the long side can rest assured that does not mean that you can counterattack? Currently look at the 10-year bond rates in the next period of time does not rule out again back to 1 7 and below the position, to the early part of some of the float of the disk to cash in the opportunity to gain. Especially considering the probability that the credit boom at the beginning of the year is coming to an end and that the first quarter is coming to an end, and that the pressure of asset drought may come to the forefront again, this means that a proper counterattack is possible and has a certain degree of support.
Four However, this counterattack does not mean that the March 7 point is the high point of this round of bond market, nor does it mean that bond rates will continue to go down and hit new lows. I believe that the real impact of the bond market trend of factors or expectations and sentiment to improve the sustainability of the current look at the future of the 10-year medium-term bond yields again touched or even broke the 2 risk potential has not been eliminated, and the possibility is not small, after all, the 10-year and 30-year bond yields were last in the position of 2 and above or in December 2 and 22, 2024, so far, but only three months or so of time.
Data, although the price data is very weak, and exports increased by only 2 24, but taking into account imports fell sharply by 8 43 year-on-year, so that in January and February this year, the trade surplus still increased by 36 81 year-on-year trade surplus is a record high for the same period in history, which means that this year’s foreign trade side of the economy still has some support, should be able to make up for the weak domestic demand.
Five current bond market tangle, on the one hand, because of the improvement of expectations and sentiment, on the other hand, is because the current market for expectations and sentiment to improve the sustainability is still in a state of doubt, after all, engaged in the bond market, hope that the economy downward mentality is very deep-rooted, and the past to see always become the last winner, this time whether it will be different need to try to wait.
Disclaimer
The information, opinions and assumptions contained in this newsletter reflect the judgment of the publisher on the date of publication. The content and opinions contained in this newsletter are for informational purposes only. The information contained in this public number is the author’s own opinion and does not represent any investment advice or recommendation. This public number retains all rights to the original content contained herein, without permission, any organization or individual may not reproduce, duplicate, publish or quote any original content contained in this public number in any form. If you seek permission from the public number to quote or publish, you must use it within the scope of permission, and indicate the source as Sycamore Tree Intelligence, and must not quote, abridge or modify the relevant content in any way that is contrary to the original intent.
The information, opinions and assumptions contained in this newsletter reflect the judgment at the time of publication. The content and opinions contained in this newsletter are for reference only. The information contained in this newsletter is the opinion of the author and does not represent any investment advice or recommendation.
This public number retains all rights to the original content contained herein, without permission, any organization or individual may not reproduce, duplicate, publish or quote any original content contained in this public number in any form. If you seek permission from the public number to quote or publish, you must use it within the scope of permission, and indicate the source as Sycamore Tree Intelligence, and must not quote, abridge or modify the relevant content in any way that is contrary to the original intent.
Leave a Reply