Although we had expected Trump’s, repeatedly jumping across the board and extreme pressure character, it still shocked the world last Friday when Trump suddenly made a very strong statement that he was going to impose even tougher sanctions on Russia.
Because this position, and his attitude towards Russia in the past few months to 180 degrees big turn, make the world both allies and enemies, very surprised.
So Trump’s 180-degree turn to get tough on Russia and engage in sanctions, is the talk between the United States and Russia collapsed?
Or is the past period of time, the great powers game in the end what has happened to the huge change?
I have written in previous articles that Trump’s diplomatic strategy over the past period of time, because of the over-eagerness to achieve success, is actually out of balance.
The balance that he has lost is his unilateral begging of Russia to repair relations, while at the same time strong-arming Ukraine without a bottom line.
With Ukraine, Trump wielded a triple axe.
The first is to force Ukraine to give up territory already occupied by Russia.
Second, not promising Ukraine, and Zelensky, commensurate security protection after the ceasefire.
Third, demand that Ukraine sign a $500 billion agreement on rare earths and mineral deposits.
This is tantamount to forcing Ukraine to surrender, without giving it the most basic guarantees, and at the same time plundering Ukraine’s underground resources.
And for some time now, Trump has been executing an international strategy of begging for détente with Russia and unilaterally pressuring Ukraine, essentially because he is throwing our country an olive branch of the nature of dividing the world’s interests between the two countries together and solving all of the world’s problems, which we have rejected.
After that, he began to plot to build a North American empire while trying to build a new relationship with Russia to divide European interests by being friendly with Russia.
At the level of outward expansion ambitions, Trump and Putin do have room for collaboration and communication.
However, Trump in the political determination and political heritage, really can not play to win Putin.
Because Trump prematurely and too much in front of Russia, exposed the willingness to comprehensive compromise, which gives Russia more flexible space.
The current situation in Russia and Ukraine, Russia occupies Crimea, as well as the vast majority of the territory of the four eastern states of Ukraine.
After Trump negotiated with Putin, the two sides team talks, from the signals released by both sides, Russia’s strong demand that the territory of these five states must be recognized as belonging to Russia is a precondition for the armistice.
And at this stage Ukraine is not only in possession of part of the territory of the four Udonian oblasts, but at the same time it has also attacked part of the Russian territory of Kursk.
It is clear that at the Ukrainian as well as at the European psychological level there is a desire for a ceasefire on the basis of preserving the territories that each side occupies on the other side at this stage.
A further step would be to withdraw together, thus creating a demilitarized zone.
But if this is the case, then the demilitarized zone will be partly located on Russian territory.
Ukraine occupies a portion of Russian territory, and Ukraine could borrow that portion to negotiate a swap with Russia to get back a portion of Russian-occupied territory.
But it’s clear. Having gotten an insight into Trump’s unilateral signals begging for a rapprochement, what Russia, and Putin, have done in recent times is to go on a strong offensive in the Kursk region to make sure that Ukraine is driven out of Russian territory before a truce agreement is made with Ukraine.
At this stage Russia is in possession of parts of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region in addition to the four Udonian oblasts, which are already recognized by the Russian constitution, as well as Crimea.
I predict that in the future, Russia’s negotiating strategy should be to drive Ukraine completely out of Russian territory, and this part will not be used for trade.
Russia will then trade the occupation of part of Kharkiv for a small amount of Ukrainian territory in the four Udonian oblasts, thus eventually realizing the complete occupation of the four Udonian oblasts as well as Crimea.
It is with this goal in mind that Putin has continued to ramp up his full-scale offensive on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield in the recent past, despite the signals of rapprochement with the United States.
And this offensive, a serious face Trump boasted of bringing peace to Russia and Ukraine, the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield has full control of this performance, so Trump in the realization of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield initiative by Putin completely grasp, he began to come up with the sanctions against Russia this card, hoping that Russia can be a ceasefire.
But just after Trump announced on Friday that he was going to impose strong sanctions on Russia, Russia carried out an even stronger all-out offensive in the Kursk region on both Saturday and Sunday.
Obviously, because of Trump’s repeated horizontal jumps, his threat of sanctions has lost its deterrent effect on Putin, on Russia.
In such a context, the United States can only slap itself in the face by announcing the resumption of military assistance with Ukraine, and intelligence exchanges with Ukraine, so as to be able to shore up Ukraine on the battlefield, and have a stronger resistance to Russia.
Despite Trump’s harsh words about sanctioning Russia, I predict that his strategic direction of partnering with Russia to build a community of interest in carving up Europe will not change.
It’s just that his eagerness to get ahead of the game has caused him to lose his dominant position in his partnership with Putin.
And Russia and Putin obviously understand better, the battlefield can not take, in the negotiation table more can not get this iron law.
Therefore, there will be no ceasefire in the war until Russia has completely driven the Ukrainian army from its soil.
Ultimately. Trump will presumably press Zelensky to agree to recognize the four Udonian oblasts, as well as Crimea, as belonging to Russia, and then Russia will give up the part of Kharkiv that it has already captured in exchange for some of the Ukrainian-occupied territory in the four Udonian oblasts.
Russia’s eventual small withdrawal in Kharkiv becomes a face-saver for Trump.
Allowing Trump to give the international community, a little accountability.
Conceivably, it’s also fodder for Trump to brag about his accomplishments for some time to come.
After Trump called, this time, for tougher sanctions against Russia, Russia instead engaged in even more drastic military action over the next two days.
It is also showing the world that Trump’s extreme pressure set, after failing against China, is also completely ineffective against Russia.
Trump repeatedly jumped across the board and, on the surface, was able to claim more short-term benefits.
But because of the loss of basic credibility, so much so that he has no deterrent effect of any great power leader!
It is the right time for the United States to usher in such a leader who is greedy for the small and loses the big, who gains the near and loses the far, during a period of strategic contraction!
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