Marcos Jr. still has three years left in his presidency, but former President Duterte’s daughter, Sarah, who is the top candidate for the future new president, has a voter approval rating of nearly 30 , almost as much as the second and third place finishers combined.
The latest polls show that despite her deep impeachment crisis, she is still the favorite to be the next Philippine president, with an approval rating of nearly 30 , well ahead of her rivals.
But the question is, can she survive this impeachment fiasco? Or will she become a political victim of the Marcos Jr. faction?
More importantly, if Sarah succeeds in entering the presidency, will there be new changes in the Philippines’ domestic and foreign policies, especially in its relations with China?
The political ecology of the Philippines has long been dominated by family power, and the Duterte family and the Marcos family, once allies, are now at loggerheads.
In 2022, Marcos Jr. and Sarah Duterte ran for the presidency and vice presidency.
At the time, Marcos Jr. promised to continue Duterte’s policies, but after coming to power, he quickly reoriented himself to the United States.
The Duterte family was extremely dissatisfied with this, and the relationship between Sarah and Marcos Jr. deteriorated rapidly, eventually parting ways.
In 2024, Sara suffered an impeachment crisis and was accused of financial problems, which was widely seen as a political liquidation of the Marcos faction.
The question now is whether Sarah can survive this political storm and run for president in 2028?
Can Duterte’s political legacy capitalize on Sarah?
In his six years in power, Duterte has amassed a high level of support among the Filipino people, especially in the southern region, where his influence is still unrivaled.
Duterte’s anti-narcotics policies and iron-fisted style of governance earned him a loyal following in the Philippines, and his approval rating was still over 60% when he left office.
Sarah, his daughter, naturally inherited this political legacy and became the popular choice for his successor.
The latest polls show that despite her impeachment, she is still far ahead of her rivals, a sign that Duterte’s influence still exists.
But the problem is that approval ratings alone are not enough, and the winner of a political battle often depends on who can survive to the end.
Is the impeachment a political crackdown or a real crisis?
The biggest threat to Sarah is the impeachment that Congress is pushing for, and if it succeeds, she will not only be stripped of her vice-presidency, but she may also be disqualified from running for the presidency in the future.
The background of the impeachment case is clearly related to the political struggle of the Marcos Jr. faction, as Sarah’s high approval ratings have threatened Marcos’ re-election plans.
If the impeachment is successful, the Duterte family’s political position will suffer a severe blow and may even be completely removed from Philippine politics.
But if Sarah can hold on, her political capital will be further enhanced and she may even use it to rally more supporters to pave the way for the 2028 elections.
This is a political battle that will determine the future of power in the Philippines and whether Sarah can become a real presidential candidate.
Will the relationship between China and the Philippines change as a result?
During his term in office, Duterte has pushed for a détente in Sino-Philippine relations, emphasizing pragmatic cooperation , while Marcos Jr. came to power and has clearly moved closer to the United States, leading to tensions in the South China Sea.
If Sarah is elected, will she continue her father’s policy of repairing relations with China?
Or will she continue Marcos Jr.’s foreign policy under the pressure of reality?
With Philippine foreign policy, which is often constrained by domestic political struggles, it remains unclear whether Sarah can really make a difference.
In other words, the real change in Sino-Philippine relations depends not only on who the Philippine president is, but also on whether the internal political ecology of the Philippines will allow such a change to take place.
Can Marcos Jr. stabilize the situation?
Although Marcos Jr. is the incumbent president, his approval ratings are slipping and people are not satisfied with his performance.
His lack of substantial breakthroughs in economic governance has led to rising discontent in the country.
He has turned his back on the U.S. diplomatically, but it is doubtful whether this policy will truly benefit the Philippines.
If Sarah manages to survive the impeachment crisis, Marcos Jr.’s position in power may be even more precarious by then.
In other words, Sarah’s political future is closely related to the success or failure of Marcos Jr.’s administration, and the next three years will still be full of uncertainties in the Philippine political arena.
Sarah Duterte’s future is full of hope, but also faces great risks.
If she survives impeachment, she is likely to become the next president of the Philippines, which will affect the direction of the country’s internal and external policies and may even change the situation in the South China Sea.
But if she is successfully impeached, the political influence of the Duterte family will be significantly weakened, and the political landscape of the Philippines will be completely changed.
Although Marcos Jr. is in control of the situation for the time being, it is still unknown whether he will be able to stabilize power in the next three years.
Every election in the Philippines is a big gamble, and this time, Sarah Duterte is betting everything to try to win the future.
But the question is, can she make it to the end and really be the one to turn the tide?
End of story.
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