How much influence does former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte still have over the Armed Forces of the Philippines, three years after he handed over power?
This question has become the most sensitive topic in Philippine politics as the International Criminal Court (ICC) continues to move forward with its investigation of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.
Once Duterte is actually subjected to an arrest warrant, the loyalty of the Philippine military will be tested like never before.
Duterte, who has been in power for six years, has built deep ties in the Philippine military.
And now, his political rivals, the Marcos Jr. government, seem to be acquiescing in the ICC’s actions, trying to weaken the Duterte family’s influence with outside forces.
The question is, will the Philippine military really stand by and allow Duterte to be sacrificed?
Or will the political battle over Duterte end up dragging the Philippines into a new turmoil?
Duterte came to power in 2016 , pursuing an anti-drug policy with an iron fist, which has allowed him to amass a large number of supporters within the Philippines and attracted widespread criticism from the international community.
The International Criminal Court (ICC), which considers his war on drugs to involve crimes against humanity, has attempted to open an investigation against him.
After leaving office, Duterte’s influence remains, particularly in the military and in the political forces of southern Mindanao.
When Marcos Jr. came to power, although he had promised not to cooperate with the ICC, his attitude began to change subtly over time, and he became significantly less protective of Duterte.
For its part, the Philippine military’s position has become muddled, neither publicly supporting Duterte nor explicitly stating that it would execute the arrest warrant.
All this has created a question in the outside world If Duterte is really arrested, will the Philippine military intervene?
Can Duterte’s military roots save him?
The military has been a key political pillar for Duterte during his administration.
He has won the support of many of the military’s top brass by significantly increasing military spending and boosting military salaries during his tenure.
In Mindanao, the Duterte family has a very close relationship with the military and local armed forces, and has the ability to mobilize armed forces at critical moments.
The Philippine military has a tradition of coups d’état and has been involved in politics many times in history, and the attitude of the military often determines the direction of state power.
If the ICC does order Duterte’s arrest, the military’s reaction could determine the final course of events.
Will it side with the Marcos Jr. administration or choose to protect the elder Duterte? This will be a major test.
Marcos Jr.’s calculus Weakening Duterte’s influence
Although Marcos Jr. is allied with the Duterte family in the election, in reality, the political alliance between the two families has long been fractured.
After coming to power, Marcos Jr. has gradually weakened the power of the Duterte faction by putting his close associates in control of the military and the core branches of government.
He has not publicly supported the ICC investigation, but he has also not blocked the ICC’s action, which in itself is a tacit attitude.
If Duterte is arrested, the Marcos Jr. administration can use the opportunity to remove the Duterte family’s influence in politics and pave the way for its own long-term rule.
But the question is, can he really pull off this plan? Will the military be obedient?
Is the military’s silence supportive or wait-and-see?
The Philippine military has not taken a clear stance so far, and that silence speaks for itself.
If the military were completely on Marcos Jr.’s side, they should have already stated their support for the ICC investigation, but they have not.
If the military was totally loyal to Duterte, they should also have done something to stop the situation, but they haven’t either.
This silence means that there may be a split within the military, with one part supporting Duterte and one part favoring the government, with no one willing to take a stand first.
It is the attitude of the military that will determine Duterte’s fate.
The culture of coup d’état in the Philippines , will it repeat itself?
In the history of the Philippines, the military has staged many coups that have directly affected the country’s political landscape.
In 1986, the military fell on its sword and overthrew the Marcos dictatorship, laying down the political framework of the Philippines today.
In 2001, the military supported popular protests that forced then-President Estrada to step down.
During Duterte’s rule, he has been wary of possible betrayal by the military and has been trying to co-opt it.
If Duterte is indeed arrested, will the military again be at the center of the political storm? This is the biggest pitfall of the Philippine political situation.
U.S. attitude Will it intervene?
As an ally of the Philippines, the U.S. has been closely monitoring the political situation in the Philippines.
The US has close ties with the ICC, if the ICC really orders the arrest of Duterte, will the US be behind it?
As the Philippines is an important ally of the US in Asia, the US would not want to see the Philippines plunged into turmoil , but if the military intervenes, how will the US react?
If the situation deteriorates, the US may support the Marcos Jr. government or even secretly pressure the military to prevent escalation.
The turmoil in the Philippines is not only an internal problem, but also involves the tug-of-war between international forces.
Duterte’s fate does not depend only on the investigation of the International Criminal Court or the decision of the Marcos Jr. government, but the attitude of the Philippine military is what really decides everything.
If the military supports Duterte, he may not be arrested so easily and may even trigger a new political crisis.
If the military sides with the government, Duterte’s influence will be completely weakened, and the power structure in the Philippines will usher in a new round of reshuffling.
If the military remains silent, the Philippines will be plunged into long-term instability, and political struggles will continue to play out.
The Philippine military is the real referee of the country, the president can change, political parties can change, but the attitude of the military is the real key to determine the direction of power.
Duterte’s future, the future of the Philippines, will be revealed in this round of games.
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