Another change in the sky? After Zelensky turned against the Big Dipper a few days ago and started begging China for help, the situation in Ukraine has changed again.
Before the foot, Trump is still talking to Putin warmly on the phone, and even plans to arrange high-profile U.S.-Russian leader talks, the outside world generally thought that the U.S.-Russian relations to break the ice.
After the foot, Mike Waltz, assistant to the U.S. National Security Affairs, suddenly said that the United States is reconsidering its position on Russia.
At the same time, Trump himself also said that Ukraine’s security guarantees still exist, military assistance will continue.
What’s going on here? Just to Russia to show good, turn around and increase support for Ukraine, the United States this wave of changing face let Russia caught by surprise, and even a little sense of being teased.
After Trump came to power, many people thought that Ukraine was going to be sold by the United States.
Trump’s attitude toward Ukraine has been impatient, and even directly shouted Ukraine should compensate the United States 500 billion dollars to make up for the loss of past assistance.
After he took office, he obviously released goodwill to Russia, not only directly talking to Putin, but also speeding up the arrangement of the U.S.-Russian high-level talks, which at one time made the outside world feel that the Russian-Ukrainian war might usher in a turnaround due to the easing of U.S.-Russian relations.
However, a few short weeks later, Trump suddenly adjusted his attitude and began to resume military support for Ukraine, even hinting that the United States may continue to provide limited security guarantees for Ukraine .
Russia used as a negotiating tool ?
As soon as Trump took office, he began to show goodwill to Russia , which made many people think that the U.S.-Russia relationship was going to usher in a major breakthrough.
Trump’s hour-and-a-half-long call with Putin was followed by frequent leaks from Russian executives that the two leaders could meet soon.
The Russian side even began to prepare for the U.S.-Russia icebreaking , trying to find a new diplomatic breakthrough in the Ukraine issue.
But just when the US-Russia relationship was about to heat up, the US suddenly changed its mind and said it wanted to reassess its position on Russia.
Russia then realized that it might just be used by Trump as a bargaining chip to force Ukraine to make concessions The promise of an icebreaker in U.S.-Russia relations was just a negotiating tool used by Trump to threaten Ukraine.
What did Ukraine get in return for its sellout-like compromises?
Trump asked Ukraine for $500 billion in compensation, but Ukraine can’t even pay its military salaries, so it can’t afford to pay that kind of money.
Ukraine has no money, but it has mines, especially rare earth resources, which are strategic materials urgently needed by the United States.
So, the Trump administration pushed a mineral agreement, the core content of which is that 50 percent of all Ukraine’s future mineral revenues belong to the United States.
The terms of this agreement are extremely harsh, almost equivalent to making Ukraine hand over its national resources directly to the U.S. to manage, but Ukraine had no choice but to accept it in the end.
Once the agreement comes into effect, the U.S. will not only be able to obtain key minerals from Ukraine, but will also be able to rely on Ukraine’s resources to cover part of its fiscal deficit.
This also explains why Trump suddenly changed his attitude and changed his mind to support Ukraine The money is already in hand, and there is no need to leave Ukraine out in the cold.
Trump’s business mindset It’s all about the money
Trump’s core logic is very simple: Ukraine has taken too much money from the United States for nothing in the past few years, and now it’s time to pay back the debt.
If Ukraine is not willing to pay the price, the US will abandon it and even use it to curry favor with Russia.
But if Ukraine is willing to show sincerity, such as ceding resources, then the U.S. will continue to support it.
This is a typical business negotiation strategy: first pressure, then raise the price, and finally reach a deal that is most favorable to you.
Trump is not a traditional politician, but a businessman, and his foreign policy always revolves around interests, not ideology.
Russia’s miscalculation underestimated Trump’s ability to change his face.
For Vladimir Putin, Trump’s change in attitude was a direct surprise to Russia.
Russia had thought that as soon as U.S.-Russian relations warmed up, Ukraine would be in a more difficult position and might even be forced to accept peace talks.
But Trump’s sudden change of heart is tantamount to giving Ukraine new support , making Russia’s strategic judgment biased.
More importantly, Russia had thought that it could find the possibility of easing the situation through direct communication with the United States, but now it seems that the attitude of the United States is still to stall Russia while continuing to support Ukraine.
This puts Russia in a dilemma Neither can it completely trust Trump, nor can it completely ignore his influence.
The future of Ukraine In exchange for aid, what is the cost?
While Ukraine has temporarily exchanged some support from Trump, the price is a long-term limitation of its economic sovereignty.
The mineral deal means that Ukraine will have to give the US half of its resource earnings for decades to come.
This model, almost tantamount to semi-colonization, Ukraine’s economic development will be subject to the United States for a long time.
In the short term, Ukraine can continue to receive military support, but in the long term, it has been completely reduced to a vassal of the United States.
In exchange for this deal, Ukraine has gained short-term security but lost long-term independence.
Trump’s wave of maneuvering fully demonstrates his businessman nature
With Russia, he first showed favor, and when Putin let down his guard, he immediately turned and continued to aid Ukraine, catching Russia off guard.
To Ukraine, he first extreme pressure, forcing Ukraine to cede resources, and only after getting the benefits will he resume assistance, ensuring that the United States will not lose money.
Domestically, he used Ukraine’s trade of resources for aid to prove to his constituents that he wouldn’t give away money for nothing.
All of this is for the benefit of the United States, not so-called morality or promises.
But the question is, who will be the chips on Trump’s trading table next time?
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