Iowa officially became a state of the United States in 1846. The state tended to favor the Republican Party politically until 1988, and from the Civil War until 1984 with five exceptions, Iowa almost always chose the Republican candidate. Although Iowa was considered a key swing state in presidential elections every four years, from 1992 through 2012 the state voted for Democrats in six out of seven elections. However this trend changed dramatically in 2016 Trump won the state by more than 9 This margin was 15 points higher than the gap in 2012. By 2024 Trump again won the state in a landslide, defeating Kahless by 13.
However, due to Iowa’s relatively slow rate of population growth, the state’s electoral clout nationwide has waned. Currently, the state has only six electoral votes, less than half of the 13 electoral votes it had in the 1880s and 1920s. Nonetheless, Iowa remains unique in the presidential nominating process because the state’s caucuses traditionally take the lead in the nominating process each election cycle, giving the state exceptional importance. In 2024, however, Democrats have adjusted their schedule to focus more on states whose demographics are a better fit with the party’s voter base.
I The Presidential Election
Iowa ranks 26th in area and 31st in population among the 50 U.S. states, with about 3.19 million residents. As the political center of the state, Des Moines, the most populous city and largest metropolitan area, plays a central role in Iowa. In addition a portion of Nebraska’s Omaha metropolitan area extends into three southwestern Iowa counties, further strengthening the regional ties between the two states. It has been a political battleground and an electoral windfall for decades. In the 2016 and 2020 elections, Iowa had a significantly higher number of Republican voters than the national average, and is now generally viewed as a moderately red state at both the federal and state levels. Despite polls showing an unusually tight race, Trump easily won Iowa in 2020 by a margin of 8 2, making Biden the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to fail to win Iowa but be elected president.
A poll conducted by Selzer & Company on November 2, last year’s election showed Harris with a lead in support of 3 , leading some to predict that the race would turn out to be even tighter than initially expected. Selzer retired from the polling industry after the election, a decision she claimed had been made the year before. Despite polls predicting that Trump might narrowly win the state, and even predicting a reversal of Harris’s victory, Donald Trump won the state in a surprise landslide, winning by 13 2 points, the largest lead for any candidate since 1972. Trump became the first Republican to win Scott County since Reagan in 1984.
Last May Iowa’s highly touted poll forecaster, Ann Selzer, predicted an 18-point lead for Trump over Biden, a number that, if correct, would have given Trump an easy win in Wisconsin and, most likely, Minnesota. By September Selzer adjusted her caliber, announcing that Trump led Harris by just 4 , which was a 4-point shift to the right from her prediction of Trump ahead of Biden at the same point in 2020, when she ended up being almost exactly right, with a gap of 1 2 or less. Most online pundits expected her to release a final Trump 10 range poll a week before the 2024 election, when in fact she released a Harris 3 poll. All 99 counties in Iowa are either more Republican leaning or less Democratic leaning compared to 2020, and this is not just due to the natural rightward shift in the Upper Midwest.
The state’s party registration rate has risen from R 1 in 2020 to R 10 4 in 2024, with changes occurring in every county, leaving only six counties that still hold on to predominantly Democratic voter registration. The extent of the rightward shift in each of the following counties
Results in 98 of the 99 counties show an increase in Republican support, while Page County, a small county in southwest Iowa, has seen a 0 6 drop in support due to population decline and the subsequent loss of votes from both candidates Trump still won by a 42 4 margin. This means that the party registration indicator is 98 to 99 in predicting the change in the gap between counties 99 So much for the polling voodoo .
Trump outperformed his 2020 performance by raw vote margins in 93 of the 99 counties and, as I predicted, he beat Wisconsin Projected counties Scott County Contains the metropolitan area Davenport This is the first time a Republican has won a presidential election there since 1984.
Before Trump flipped Iowa in 2016, Iowa had been Obama’s state twice, and even in the first two campaigns, Iowa outpolled Texas. Obama beat John McCain in a 9 5 landslide, and Iowa has since moved 366,302 votes to the right. Here are Iowa’s margins of victory between Obama’s first campaign and Trump’s third campaign
Harris had a dismal election in Iowa. She surpassed Biden’s 2020 vote totals in only two counties, Dallas County with 2,523 votes and Warren County with 138 votes, both of which are in the Des Moines area. Des Moines itself is in Polk County, where Harris lost Biden by 6,175 votes, a margin of victory of only 4 5 . In 52 of Iowa’s 99 counties, Harris’ raw vote totals were even lower than Hillary’s, and she won only five counties.
Overall Harris lost 51,783 votes to Biden’s 2020 vote base. This is the worst loss in vote margin for a presidential candidate of any party since Democratic candidate McGovern lost to Nixon by 17 1 in 1972. These vote losses may be due not only to natural changes in regional trends, but also to a decline in absentee ballots, with the number of early ballots this time down by more than a quarter of a million from the last time around.
II U.S. Sen.
Republicans also pocketed all four of Iowa’s U.S. House seats and two U.S. Senators.
Grassley Chuck Grassley, b. 1933 , was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1981. Prior to becoming a U.S. Senator Grassley had served eight terms in the Iowa House of Representatives 1959 1975 and three terms in the U.S. House 1975 1981. He served three terms as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee during the period when Republicans held the majority in the Senate. upon Hatch’s retirement in 2019, Grassley became the Senate’s most senior Republican. upon Parrish’s retirement in 2023 Grassley further became the Senate’s most senior member.
Those 80-year-olds in the U.S. Senate
Grassley, who is currently 91 years and five months old, is the oldest current U.S. Senator and the longest-serving Republican in the history of Congress, and the sixth-longest-serving U.S. Senator in history. He served as President Emeritus Pro Tempore of the Senate from 2021 to 2025. During his four-decade-long Senate career, Grassley has served in key positions such as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee Senate Narcotics Caucus Senate Judiciary Committee and the Senate Committee on Aging. He will serve until 2028 and it remains to be seen if he will seek reelection.
Ernst Joni Ernst has been a U.S. Senator from Iowa since 2015. Previously served as an Iowa State Senator from 2011 to 2014 and as Montgomery County Auditor from 2005 to 2011. Ernst has served as vice chairman of the Senate Republican Conference since 2019 and as chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee from 2023 to 2025, and is the fourth-ranking Republican in the Senate. Ernst was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, becoming the first Republican to win the seat since 1978. She was considered a potential running mate for Trump during his 2016 campaign, but ultimately dropped out of the race. she was successfully re-elected in 2020.
On policy positions, Ernst is conservative. She opposes the legalization of abortion, supports the Fetal Personhood Amendment, and has introduced legislation to stop defunding Planned Parenthood. She opposed the Affordable Care Act and called for reforms to Medicare Medicaid and Social Security. During the Trump administration, she has expressed concern about Trump’s trade war with China, but has also supported a number of Trump policies, including a major tax reform bill in 2017. She is considered a hawk on foreign policy. In addition, she rejects the scientific consensus on climate change.
All four of Iowa’s U.S. House seats in the 2024 election were successfully re-elected by incumbent Republican legislators. Incumbent Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller Meeks of District 1 was narrowly defeated by Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by a margin of 50 vs 49 8, winning by 799 votes.
Incumbent Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson of District 2 was re-elected over Democratic challenger Sarah Corkery and independent candidate Jody Madlom Puffett. District 3 incumbent Republican Rep. Zach Nunn was re-elected over Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam. Incumbent Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra was re-elected in District 4, defeating Democratic challenger Ryan Melton by a wide margin. The results of Iowa’s U.S. House races once again show a strong Republican advantage in the state. Incumbent Republican legislators were re-elected in all four districts, with Democrats failing to break through in any of the districts. Overall the 2024 Iowa U.S. House election results further solidify Republican influence in the state, with Democrats failing to make any key breakthroughs in this election.
III Governor
Three incumbent Republican officials in Iowa performed well in the 2022 midterm elections. Governor Kim Reynolds Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig and Secretary of State Paul Pate were both successfully re-elected by landslide margins of over 18, demonstrating their strong support among voters. Meanwhile, of the three statewide Democratic incumbents in the state, Attorney General Tom Miller and Secretary of the Treasury Michael Fitzgerald were unable to hold onto their seats, each losing to their Republican challengers. The loss of these two Democratic officials, who have been in office for 28 and 40 years, respectively, also reflects a significant shift in the electorate. The only Democratic incumbent to win was Auditor General Rob Sand, who has been in office for four years and narrowly won by less than 3,000 votes, a mere 0 24.
The 2022 election for incumbent Republican Governor Reynolds won re-election in a landslide receiving 58 of the votes cast, defeating Democratic candidate Dedria DeJear. Reynolds was first elected Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2010. on May 24, 2017, then Governor Terry Branstad resigned to become the U.S. Ambassador to China, and Reynolds took over as Governor. in 2018, Reynolds was elected Governor on his own merits, a victory that at the time was considered to be a minor surprise. In the 2022 election, however, her vote share rose dramatically, further solidifying her political position. Reynolds managed to turn around seven counties that voted Democratic in the last gubernatorial election, including Black Hawk County Clinton County Des Moines County Dubuque County Jefferson County Lee County and Scott County. The flip of these counties not only demonstrates Reynolds’ broad support among voters, but also reflects strong Republican momentum in Iowa.
Reynolds, the incumbent Republican governor in 2026, is eligible to run for a third term as governor because Iowa does not have term limits for governors. Although Iowa is currently generally viewed as a moderate red state, the gubernatorial race is seen as potentially unusually close given Reynolds’ relatively low approval ratings. Rob Sand, the popular state auditor, is seen as a potential Democratic candidate whose candidacy could add even more variables to the race.
IV State Legislature
As of February 2025 Iowa’s legislature and state government are fully controlled by the Republican Party, creating what is known as the Republican trifecta, in which the Republican Party controls the governorship as well as the state Senate and the state House of Representatives.
The State Senate has 50 seats, with Republicans holding 35 seats and Democrats 15. The State House of Representatives totals 100 seats Republicans hold 67 seats in the State House of Representatives and Democrats have 33 seats. In the November 2024 election, the Republican Party further solidified its majority in the Iowa Legislature. Following the election, the Republican Party increased the number of seats in the State Senate by one seat and in the State House of Representatives by three seats.
In the 2025 legislative agenda, Republican lawmakers plan to continue to advance their policy agenda by focusing on the following areas
Property Tax Relief Republican lawmakers plan to further limit property tax growth and provide more certainty for taxpayers.
Education policy Including limiting cell phone use in schools Reviewing the higher education system to ensure it meets the state’s workforce needs, among other things .
Health care Republican plans to try again to require some low-income Iowans who get health insurance through Medicaid to work or get job training.
Despite their minority status in the Iowa Legislature, Democrats have called on the legislature to consider proposals to lower the cost of living and to seek bipartisan cooperation on a number of key issues. For example, Democratic State Senate Minority Leader Janice Weiner has introduced a number of proposals, including making child care more accessible addressing wage theft and worker misclassification.
2024 U.S. Election Recap 1 Blue State California 54 Seats
2024 U.S. election replay 2 Red state Texas 40 seats
2024 U.S. election replay 3 Red state Florida 30 seats
2024 U.S. Repeat 4 Blue New York, 28.
2024 U.S. election replay 5 Swing state Pennsylvania 19 seats
2024 U.S. election replay 6 Blue state Illinois 19 seats
2024 U.S. election replay 7 Red state Ohio 17 seats
2024 U.S. election replay 8 Swing state Georgia 16 seats
2024 U.S. election replay 9 Swing state North Carolina 16 seats
2024 U.S. election replay 10 Swing state Michigan 15 seats
2024 U.S. election replay 11 Blue state New Jersey 14 seats
2024 U.S. Election Series 12 Blue State Hawaii 4 seats
2024 U.S. Election Series 13 Red State Alaska 3 seats
2024 U.S. Election Series 14 Red Alabama 9 Seats
2024 U.S. Election Series 15 Blue District of Columbia 3 seats
2024 U.S. Election Series 16 Light Blue New Hampshire 4 seats
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