Syria is, unsurprisingly, once again in the midst of a civil war, this time between elite forces loyal to former President Al-Assad and the Al-Sham Liberation Organization, resulting in 48 deaths.
Meanwhile, with Kurdish forces in Syria declaring their support for Assad’s forces in power, and another Druze force clashing with the Sham Liberation Organization, and with the likes of Israel and Turkey eyeing the area, Jelani, who is effectively in charge of Syria’s interim government, is once again getting a taste of what it was like to be a former president.
Complexity of forces in Syria
The Latakia province where the conflict erupted also has a special significance, as it is not only the hometown of former President Assad, but also the key to Syria’s strategic geography.
Its proximity to both the sea and the mountains gives Assad’s supporters an immeasurable geographic advantage, as the mountains and forests are not only a natural barrier, but also an excellent place for concealment and counterattack.
This skillful use of the terrain and local networks of contacts has enabled them to move in and out of attacks, becoming for a time an untouchable bulwark.
It is easy to see that even after the fall of the Assad regime, there are still some loyal military and political officials roaming the neighborhoods, or disguised as hidden assets in neighboring countries, who continue to funnel money, equipment, and even intelligence and technical means to these armed groups.
Not to mention the possibility that outside forces like Russia may also come to the rescue, providing not only advanced military technology but also the confidence to sustain the struggle.
Giulani’s position is precarious
Even if there is no direct alliance between these forces, there may be a tacit understanding, which means that the Sham Liberation Organization faces not just a lone army, but multiple forces joining forces to fight the enemy.
Turning back to the Syrian interim government, under the internal and external difficulties, the foundation of their rule is like a castle built on the beach, which will collapse at the slightest blow of the wind.
To add insult to injury, on the international stage, the Syrian issue has always been the focus of tug-of-war among the major powers, and the interim Government, caught in the middle, must learn to strike a balance in the game of the major powers.
However, different countries have their own calculations, cooperation and division coexist, and it is almost a luxury to try to reach an agreement, and under the internal and external problems, the difficulty of the interim government’s governance can be imagined.
It can be seen that the complex problems in Syria cannot be solved by overthrowing the Assad regime, and the country is plagued by deep-rooted internal contradictions, as well as the superposition of the complex situation caused by external intervention.
Syria’s Gordian knot is difficult to untie
Even if Joulani is replaced as leader, the contradictions of many years will not disappear because of the new face, and the wounds of war and psychological trauma are also part of the urgent need for healing, which often requires years of accumulation and mediation.
Overall, Syria’s problems are like a mess, and cracking them will take both time and wisdom.
The ability of Assad’s supporters to survive and fight back is not only a tactical success, but also a manifestation of a spirit of indomitability, and the future of Syria requires not only a change of the interim government, but also a redefinition of the rules and a long-lasting peace effort.
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