Hot and cold counterintuitive consumer market, we need to see through the consumer secrets of the times.
Hello everyone, I’m Sun Shaosleep. This is my 271st article.
In the minds of many people, tomorrow’s Monday, or even until next week after the Lantern Festival, is the real 2025 work start. But in the people who started working one after another, I found that everyone’s consumption concept has suddenly changed.
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In fact, the story began as early as last year.
The 2024 annual store closure survey report data, in 2024 the country’s 532 chain brands withdrew stores, of which the unit price of more than 300 yuan of medium and high-end brands accounted for 57 8, and COACH MK and other overseas brands closed stores as high as 79 4. On the contrary, low-priced snack stores will shine in 2024.
The position of luxury goods in shopping malls is in jeopardy. Shanghai Hang Lung, for example, has seen both revenue and occupancy rates fall, and its stock price has returned to the year 2000. The winter of brick-and-mortar commerce has been mentioned again.
But why is it that mall traffic is rising rather than falling? Combined with my experience, it seems that everyone has become a subterranean animal. The higher the floor of the mall, the lower the flow of people. Everyone concentrates their spending in B1 and B2 of the mall.
On the B1 floor of Raffles City Shanghai, the brand renewal rate has exceeded 70% in three years, and the subway, fast food, boutique supermarkets are all available in the mall, which is very popular. On the other hand, the luxury stores on the top floors are deserted.
Some people say, used to buy clothes also go to the mall two or three floors to stroll, now go to see the price of a glance feel pain, questioning their previous actually like to shop ONLY LuluLemon and so on, and now buy buy VERO MODA and even Uniqlo feel difficult.
Poundland works pretty well too, doesn’t it?
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The same goes for the movie market. It’s true that Ne Zha is a phenomenal hit, but it’s an explosion that came at a time when China’s box office dropped by 8 percent year-on-year in 2024, and the number of moviegoers fell by a whopping 10 percent.
Ne Zha’s success came at the expense of the lack of moviegoers for the whole of 2024. Audiences who have held back a year without a good movie will have to focus their spending on the New Year.
Despite Nezha’s success, the industry is also wailing, blaming the depression on the cannibalization of streaming and short videos. According to statistics, the scale of short plays reached 50.4 billion yuan last year, users exceeded 500 million, and is expected to break 100 billion by 2027.
It is worth noting that this 50.4 billion market size, single I in the 1980s as a stepmother, such as TOP 10 explosive models harvested 13.7 billion, the Matthew effect far beyond the traditional film and television industry.
This Spring Festival gear, in the corners you and I do not know, 400 short dramas on line while on vacation, wildly earned 800 million paid, no wonder many people assert that the era of the movie has passed .
But have you ever wondered why the box office is so small, while the membership income and effective clicks of Ai You Teng have multiplied? Why do movie companies have transformed to do online dramas. But the net drama can not move to the theater ?
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The third paradox, occurs in the travel market.
Right now, domestic tourists have not fully recovered, but foreigners have returned. Combined with the new rules on our temporary stay in the country, it seems that consumption no longer cares about us, but wants to pull the wool over the eyes of foreigners.
In 2024, Koreans will be watching the Western scene in Shanghai, which is a new era of export to domestic sales.
Only the first eight days of the Spring Festival, Shenzhen received 1.18 million people. Shanghai 2024 consumption data, the contribution of foreign customers rose 28 year-on-year, and the number of transactions increased by 63. Attractions that were once deserted, such as Tianzifang, now have a foreign accent.
But in stark contrast, domestic tourists are cautious. The term “special forces tourism” was born at the right time. Although the people’s willingness to travel is very strong, but taking into account the economic pressure, they are more inclined to peripheral tourism Short-distance travel.
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The last set of data comes from the property market. Last year, the sales volume and amount of commercial real estate fell below 10 trillion dollars, only half of the peak. The number of 100 billion real estate enterprises has dropped from 41 to 11. Inventories are high, confidence is lacking, and many cities even appear ghost towns.
But don’t forget, just when everyone is singing the praises of, during the Spring Festival, the average daily volume of new homes sold in 28 key cities rose by 8 percent year-on-year. Dalian even soared 3000 , Guangzhou Chengdu Shanghai also rose significantly.
Note Because the same period last year, the average daily turnover of Dalian only 2 sets, this year’s Spring Festival daily average of up to 60 sets, so showing a super high growth rate, specific need to be combined with the promotional content of the project to observe!
Although we have different bases, only look at the ratio of general reference, but the first and second-tier cities to city policy, have launched the hometown home purchase offers, is indeed an indisputable fact.
Economist Ren Zeping said The current regional differentiation of the real estate market is essentially a redistribution of the population quality dividend . This and Shenzhen’s Spring Festival average daily number of showings increased by 43% year-on-year data Shell Research Institute to form a mutual proof.
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The above four phenomena seem to be contradictory, but in fact they are self-consistent. They reflect the general trend of rapid differentiation and restructuring of the consumer market.
The decline of traditional shopping malls precisely highlights the importance of fine-tuned operations. Now there will be people to brand loyalty? All the brands, can not beat the three words of cost-effective.
Shopping malls used to be full of stores, but now they are all showrooms or experience halls, obviously transforming from space rental to content service.
As for the real estate market, although it is difficult to say optimistic in the short term, but in the long term there is still a lot of potential. Especially in the first and second tier core cities, improvement demand and rigid demand is difficult to be replaced.
Everyone is predicting a small spring in the Chinese New Year, and if there is one, it will epitomize the future rebound of the market. If there isn’t, then it’s still important to continue to look at the average person’s future income expectations. Home prices can be anything but cheap, but expensive on the premise of having confidence in the future .
Consumption is externalized, what is internalized? Internalization is, all business is going through a painful and long transformation . You can say it’s passive, but I think it’s active.
Passive is simply to cater to the upgrading of the demand side, the demand for quality and the pursuit of cost-effectiveness. But active, is to make room for new productivity. Abandon some of the old paradigms and let the new ones that have sprouted grow branches.
The essence of this consumer reorganization is that the business world has shifted from meeting needs to creating desires. When Uniqlo started selling premium UT, when theaters had to offer emotional massage, when sales offices turned into Netflix check-in points all industries are learning to reshape value with content.
This is no longer a cold winter, but a new era of survival of the fittest.
END
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I am Sun Shaosleep, please stay tuned.
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