Author Liu Xiaobo
Source Liu Xiaobo said financial ID liuxb929
In the past 24 hours, there have been two big news stories to watch.
News 1 At 3:00 a.m. Beijing time today, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In addition, it also amended the statement on inflation, meaning that the 2025 interest rate cut space The number of times will be greatly reduced. This also means that the Fed backhandedly gave the king a slap in the face.
The U.S. attitude toward DeepSeek, China’s rising artificial intelligence model, has subtly changed, with plagiarism, blocking, and online attacks coming one after the other.
Let’s take a look at the Fed’s latest decision and statement early this morning.
The Fed will have eight interest rate meetings in 2025, all at Washington time.
1st January 28th 29th
2nd March 18th 19th
3rd May 6 7
4th June 17th 18th
5th July 29th 30th
6th September 16th 17th
7th October 28th 29th
8th December 9 10th.
After the last three rate meetings in 2024 September November December, the Fed cut rates by 50 bps 25 bps 25 bps each, starting a new cycle of rate cuts.
But early this morning, the Fed paused its rate cuts and announced it was keeping the federal funds rate range at 4 25 4 50 .
As I have analyzed many times before in my articles, the Fed paused the rate cuts because Trump is in power and his policy mix of tariff hikes around the world, tax cuts at home, and driving out tens of millions of illegal immigrants, will spur inflation.
And U.S. inflation, originally did not fall back to the ideal target of 2 within, just because the unemployment rate broke through 4, coupled with the previous violent interest rate hikes still have a lagging effect, so the Fed started to cut interest rates in advance.
Now that Trump is here, expectations have completely changed. So the Fed’s attitude has also changed.
Early this morning, the Fed, in addition to announcing the suspension of interest rate cuts, also revised its optimistic statement on the fall of inflation.
The Fed’s latest statement on inflation is that inflation remains at a relatively high level , while last month’s statement was that inflation was moving toward the Committee 2 target but remained slightly higher .
In addition, the Fed reaffirmed the dual objectives of monetary policy in its statement that the Committee is committed to achieving maximum employment and the long-term2 inflation target.
A look at the latest U.S. inflation data shows what the Fed is talking about. The target is 2, but it’s currently 2 9 and it’s rebounded for the third month in a row
Add to that the fact that Trump’s New Deal is starting to be implemented and inflation is bound to rebound. So the decision was made to pause the rate cuts and there is no rush to cut rates in the future.
Previously, people’s predictions for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025 were generally 4 times 100 basis points , and now they are generally lowered to 2 times, 50 basis points , and some organizations even believe that the rate cuts are over.
The Federal Reserve’s latest decision and stance, equal to the understanding of the king a slap in the face, a few days ago he just expressed the hope that rate cuts
The current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, was nominated by Trump in his first term, and broke two major conventions First, for the first time nominated a person who was not from the class to serve as Federal Reserve Chairman Second, broke the practice of the Federal Reserve Chairman mostly reelected, did not allow Yellen to be reelected.
Mrs. Yellen is a doctor of economics at Yale University, her mentor and her husband, both of whom are Nobel Prize winners in economics. But she only served one term as Fed Chair before she was removed by Trump and replaced by J.D. Powell.
So you could argue that Trump knows Powell well.
But Powell was more adamant about the Fed’s independence and didn’t really get along with Trump once he took office Later, he got along better with Biden instead. After Trump came back to power, he did not intend to let Powell do a third term, but also could not immediately remove him from office, only to let him finish the second term.
Because the president only has the power to nominate the chairman of the Federal Reserve, not the power to remove him, and there is no precedent for even proposing a removal.
The contradiction between Trump and Powell has already surfaced in 2019
Trump’s hostility to Powell is obvious, after a media report that Trump was once ready to take power for the second time, to engage in an unprecedented shadow Fed chairman , downplaying Powell’s influence!
Specific practice is In Powell has 2 years term, on the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chairman, so that the Federal Reserve Chairman-designate often come out to express their views, affect the market.
It is said that Trump once gave up this plan, presumably through the first release after the denial to put pressure on Powell. Now it seems that Powell does not eat this set.
After being punched in the face early this morning, it remains to be seen whether the king will restart his plan to become the shadow Fed chairman. I think there’s a good chance he’ll retaliate.
The Fed’s lack of cooperation in lowering interest rates may also spur Trump to continue suppressing international oil prices. In Trump’s view, although his series of policies may stimulate inflation, he has his own hedge, which is to make traditional energy production increase Lower prices.
Look at the recent international oil prices to see the pressure Trump is bringing.
Trump called out OPEC the other day for lower oil prices.
In his view, letting international oil prices fall can achieve two purposes First, reduce the pressure of U.S. inflation and gain space for interest rate cuts Second, by reducing international oil prices, reduce Russia’s international income and end the U.S.-Russia war as soon as possible.
Trump has a killing move to achieve the above objectives Compress the development space of new energy in the United States and promote the development and utilization of traditional energy. The United States will increase the production of oil and natural gas across the board, and then market American energy through the tariff stick, requiring Europe China, Korea and other countries to increase the purchase of U.S. oil and natural gas and reduce the purchase of Russian.
This plan seems to be very successful, but the implementation of the difficulty is not small.
Ordinary investors just need to remember two points on the line First, in 2025, the United States to reduce the space for interest rate cuts to reduce, China is the same Second, the international price of oil is under pressure, this year, easy to fall but hard to rise.
Then look at DeepSeek, which burst into popularity this spring.
It is a big model of artificial intelligence of Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co. Its low cost and high efficiency have made the global artificial intelligence industry a big earthquake, and of course, brought a revolution.
I had done a more detailed analysis in the last tweet of this number. The information in that article will not be repeated here, so if you haven’t read it yet, you can click here to check it out.
After DeepSeek became a global sensation, the first wave of reaction in the United States was positive, with American tech giants agreeing that it was an important breakthrough and congratulating Trump for his largely positive comments on the subject.
But the second wave of reaction was completely tainted , for example, the U.S. artificial intelligence company OpenAI claimed to have found evidence that DeepSeek used OpenAI’s proprietary models to train its own models. Various US officials have also said DeepSeek is stealing , and are conducting a national security investigation into its impact.
The U.S. Navy sent a warning letter asking its staff not to use DeepSeek models In recent days, the DeepSeek online service has been subjected to a massive malicious attack on IP addresses in the U.S. And the DeepSeek app has been taken down in Italy.
What does this mean?
First, artificial intelligence The semiconductor industry, which is the most central industry today that concerns the fate of the country, is inevitably decoupled from the United States and China.
DeepSeek and other big Chinese models of the rise, so that the Americans realize that their artificial intelligence in the application of the level of leadership in China is relatively limited, may be only 3 to 6 months, not paying attention may be overtaken. Therefore, the next decoupling will increase, and the core hardware GPU will be more tightly controlled.
Second, the mid-range chips represented by Huawei’s Rise series may explode.
DeepSeek’s data distillation is a technological breakthrough, proving that high-quality big models can be made using mid-range chips. And Huawei’s Rise series is good enough for that. Huawei’s opportunity comes when the U.S. controls get tighter. With its own hardware and its own big model Pangu, companies like Huawei are not rare in the world.
Whether Huawei, which has given up its own production of cars, can focus on artificial intelligence to become a global giant is worth looking forward to.
Third, China’s artificial intelligence has entered the era of 10,000 horses, and it is uncertain which companies can finally win.
The low-cost and high-efficiency model pioneered by DeepSeek has given more entrepreneurs and companies a ticket to enter the core field of AI. A large amount of capital, talent and enterprises will flock to this track, just as in the Internet and mobile Internet era.
The earliest popular entrepreneurs and startups may not be able to laugh at the end, but may become paving stones, such as Chen Sheng Wu Guang is to Xiang Yu Liu Bang paved the way Zhang Shuxin Wang Zhidong, etc., is to Tencent Ali paved the way.
But in any case, DeepSeek is the current reddest Chinese AI companies, its concept stock will continue to be fried after the holidays, opportunities and risks coexist. As for which AI companies that can eventually ever leap from startups to new trillion-dollar market capitalization leaders, it remains to be seen. If your investment can catch such a business, you can realize a reversal of wealth A leap in class.
Throughout 2025 to 2026, artificial intelligence, including humanoid robots, chips and other concepts, will be a main line of investment in the Chinese stock market.
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More exchanges please add jcg654 wechat
Set the star not to get lost, thank you for your support!
The public number of the positive business reference, welcome to pay attention to!
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